Reflection on the Year that Was. Advice for the Year to Come.
The word on the street is that this was a challenging and unpredictable admissions year. My parents, my students, and other college counselors have been sharing stories of the disappointing results (lots of waitlists!) experienced by their friends’ children, peers and clients. However, I feel like that has become an annual story.
I’ve taken some time to reflect on the 2023-2024 season, so that I capture information that may be relevant to my class of 2025 and those beyond. Every year is different, and the world of college admissions is constantly evolving. New wrinkles seem to emerge with each season that I factor into my advising, however the fundamentals of my philosophy remain the same.
The Macro Environment
-Application numbers set records again at many colleges. The Common Application reported that total applications on its platform increased 7% from the 2022-2023 cycle, and individual applicants increased by 6%.
-Early applications exploded. Through December 1, total applications submitted through the Common App were up 12% over the previous year, while individual applicants increased by 8%. In fact, of the 7,541,148 total applications for the entire cycle, 4,576,919 (60%) were submitted through either early action or early decision. Northeastern University, for example, had early applications of about 100,000, a 53% increase from 2020.
-Test optional applications represented 55% of all applications submitted through the Common Application. Although several colleges - Harvard, Dartmouth, MIT and several public universities, to name a few - have resumed their testing requirement, the vast majority of colleges in the United States remain test optional or test free.
-The cost of attending college continues to rise at a rapid pace, and several colleges have blown past the $90,000 barrier.
My Year in Review
I have had more challenging years (2019-2020 was a pretty rough one). I don’t say that to boast, and I do not ever take credit for the successful outcomes of my students. I guide them to build rational lists, I challenge them to work hard and dig in to their process, I advise them on aspects of their high school experience and course selection, I help them develop strong and authentic applications and essays, but I do not “get them in”. That’s on them.
However, I strongly believe that good outcomes come from a better process. My class of 2024 really listened to me, and they did the work to create their college futures for themselves. As is the case every year, there was some disappointment. But this year, there wasn’t any major heartbreak for my students. Some luck was involved, especially with admissions to the most selective institutions, but truthfully, students mostly applied to colleges that were good fits for them across important criteria (academic profile match, culture, intended major) and very effectively communicated to colleges how the match was a good one.
I had several students who applied for specialized programs this year: cyber security, computer science, business and kinesiology. Students who apply to a specific program must be clear about their goals and demonstrate evidence of experience and ability. I have seen a marked increase in students applying to targeted majors.
Still, the majority of my students applied to liberal arts colleges or arts and sciences programs, even when they had some idea of their intended course of study, or their future career goals.
Here are a few data points from my practice, which I always find interesting. I hope you do too.
Application Timing
-64% of my 2024s were admitted to college under a binding early decision application, including one student who was deferred to regular decision and then admitted. This is fairly typical of my client base every year but an increase from the class of 2023.
-The remainder of my class will be attending a college to which they applied under an early action application. There was an enormous increase in the number of early action applications submitted this year by my students.
-No one is attending a college to which they applied during the regular decision round. This is unprecedented in my practice.
Application Results Across Outcome Probabilities
I code student lists using four categories: Unlikely (colleges with single digit admit rates), Reach (either admit rates below 20% or an admitted student profile above the applicant’s), Target (the student and the admitted student profile are aligned), and Likely (the student exceeds the admitted student profile and/or the college has a very comfortable admit rate).
I never predict admission to an unlikely or a reach college, but I have had exceptionally strong students admitted to colleges in those categories every year. Those admissions mostly occur when the student fits the admitted student profile, and the admit rate alone has determined the coding. Sometimes, there are happy surprises for undermatched students, but those are rare.
I predict most students will be admitted to about 60% of their target schools.
I predict students will be admitted to all their likely schools.
Here is the Breakdown for the Class of 2024
Unlikely/Reach
50% admitted
17% deferred or waitlisted
33% denied
Target
72% admitted
21% waitlisted
7% denied
Likely
100% admitted
Attendance by Outcome Probabilities
-12.5% will attend a college I coded as unlikely
-25.0% will attend a reach
-62.5% will attend a target
-0% will attend a likely
Test Optional Admissions
56% of my students submitted testing this year to all or some of their colleges. This tracks the national trend. In my client base, I saw a significant increase in test submissions from the previous three years and a return to pre-pandemic levels. Last year, 85% of my students did not submit ACT or SAT results.
Merit Awards
The total dollar amount of merit awards reported by my students was $1.2 million.
Application Numbers
The range this year was from 1 application to 12 applications. The average was 7. The number per student was slightly lower this year, primarily because the high number of early decision acceptances negated the need to submit additional applications. I also advised two recruited athletes this cycle, who committed to their college in time for early decision. I do not believe it is necessary, or even healthy, for students to apply to more than 15 colleges, and for most, no more than 10-12.
Summary Points
-I strongly advise students to apply early where ever possible. Prepare for later answers (not always in December for early action anymore). Also, expect more deferrals as college admissions offices struggle to manage their application numbers. But still apply early.
-Test optional is still a viable application option for most students, but I have returned to my pre-pandemic advice that it is better to test and then choose test optional as a strategy rather than as the default.
-Merit aid is very accessible and awards of as much as $20,000 to $30,000 per year are not uncommon. It requires some list flexibility on the part of the applicant and their family.
-Doing the work to research, visit and find connection with a range of colleges (up and down the selectivity scale) yields positive outcomes in the end. More applications do not achieve more favorable outcomes. In fact, quite the opposite is often the case.
-Targeted majors that require an application to a specialized program are more competitive.
Conclusion
As I was getting ready to post this, I read a New York Times article, which posited that it is now almost impossible to predict college outcomes. I agree that it can be challenging to get it right, and there is much more variance in outcomes than even five years ago. However, I still believe it isn’t as random as they and other news outlets would have us believe. It saddens me that the overarching theme of the college admissions process in the media is how awful it is, when it should be a joyous (if arduous) undertaking which celebrates the opportunity for growth, discovery and intellectual development that college offers to anyone who seeks it as a path to adulthood.